Consumer Market Outlook
Real-money prediction-market odds on the prices that hit your wallet — inflation, gas, airfare, used cars, groceries, housing, retail sales, tariffs and recession risk.
All odds come from the Kalshi public API (no account or API key required).
Odds are the market-implied chance of each outcome, sourced from Kalshi's public free market data and refreshed about twice a day. Last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2026 14:49:27 GMT. Informational only — not financial advice.
Headline inflation (CPI)
Traders' odds on where year-over-year US consumer price inflation lands.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
28%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?
61%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
90%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026?
2%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
7%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Hotter inflation means list prices keep climbing, so coupon codes and percent-off deals are worth more in real dollars.
Core inflation
Inflation excluding food and energy — the trend retailers price against.
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
6%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in July 2026?
2%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?
34%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?
17%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
20%Market closes Oct 14, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Sticky core inflation usually means fewer deep everyday markdowns and more short, event-driven sales.
Gas prices
Odds on the US average price of regular gasoline.
Will average gas prices be above $4.090?
99%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.085?
100%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.140?
1%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.135?
2%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will average gas prices be above $4.105?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Cheaper gas frees up household budgets and tends to lift discretionary retail spending; expensive gas pushes shoppers to online orders with free shipping.
Airfare outlook
Market odds on the BLS airline fares index.
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 312?
66%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 322?
5%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 321?
27%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 320?
34%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 319?
52%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Falling airfares are a signal to book travel deals early; rising fares mean hotel and package coupons matter more.
Used-car prices
Odds on the used cars and trucks CPI print.
Will US used cars and trucks CPI for July 2026 be above 180.25 ?
55%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will US used cars and trucks CPI for July 2026 be above 180.00 ?
57%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will US used cars and trucks CPI for July 2026 be above 179.75 ?
77%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will US used cars and trucks CPI for July 2026 be above 179.50 ?
94%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
Will US used cars and trucks CPI for July 2026 be above 179.25 ?
90%Market closes Aug 12, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Softening used-car prices free up big-ticket budget and usually precede better auto-parts and accessory promos.
Housing & shelter costs
Shelter inflation and mortgage-rate markets.
Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on July 31, 2026 be above 0.50%?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on July 31, 2026 be above 0.45%?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on July 31, 2026 be above 0.40%?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on July 31, 2026 be above 0.35%?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on July 31, 2026 be above 0.30%?
54%Market closes Aug 1, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Shelter is the biggest line in most budgets — when it cools, home goods and furniture discounting picks up.
Food & grocery prices
Grocery-basket markets, where they are trading.
Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 130.0?
43%Market closes Aug 7, 2026
Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 127.0?
97%Market closes Aug 7, 2026
Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 129.0?
78%Market closes Aug 7, 2026
Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 136.0?
5%Market closes Aug 7, 2026
Will the FAO Food Price Index for July 2026 be above 135.0?
8%Market closes Aug 7, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Grocery inflation is the fastest route to coupon-clipping behavior — expect heavier CPG and household-goods coupon usage.
Retail sales
Odds on month-over-month US retail sales growth.
Will United States retail sales MoM for July 2026 be above 0.0%?
71%Market closes Aug 14, 2026
Will United States retail sales MoM for July 2026 be above 0.2%?
60%Market closes Aug 14, 2026
Will United States retail sales MoM for July 2026 be above 1.2%?
7%Market closes Aug 14, 2026
Will United States retail sales MoM for July 2026 be above 1.0%?
11%Market closes Aug 14, 2026
Will United States retail sales MoM for July 2026 be above 0.8%?
22%Market closes Aug 14, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Weak retail sales force retailers to discount harder to clear inventory — historically the best window for shoppers.
Jobs & unemployment
Market odds on the US unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
15%Market closes Sep 4, 2026
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
21%Market closes Sep 4, 2026
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?
19%Market closes Sep 4, 2026
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?
1%Market closes Dec 4, 2026
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?
2%Market closes Dec 4, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Rising unemployment odds mean cautious shoppers and, eventually, deeper clearance events.
Tariffs
Odds on the effective US tariff rate on imported goods.
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 8%?
33%Market closes Oct 29, 2026
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 6%?
74%Market closes Oct 29, 2026
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 9%?
19%Market closes Oct 29, 2026
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 7%?
61%Market closes Oct 29, 2026
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 5%?
91%Market closes Oct 29, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Higher tariffs feed straight into imported electronics, apparel and home goods prices — buy ahead of increases.
Recession & economy
Market-implied odds of a recession.
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
18%Market closes Jan 1, 2027
When will the next U.S. recession start?
4%Market closes Dec 31, 2026
When will the next U.S. recession start?
6%Market closes Dec 31, 2026
When will the next U.S. recession start?
2%Market closes Dec 31, 2026
When will the next U.S. recession start?
1%Market closes Dec 31, 2026
What it means for shoppers: Recession odds are a leading indicator for promotional intensity — retailers discount early to defend traffic.
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