Consumer Market Outlook

Total US national debt

$39.89 trillion

+7.8% vs a year ago

$32.14 trillion held by the public · $7.75 trillion intragovernmental

As of Aug 10, 2026

What it means for shoppers: A fast-growing debt load keeps upward pressure on interest rates, which filters into credit-card APRs and store financing offers. Paying with cash or a 0% promo beats carrying a balance on a discounted purchase.

National debt per person

$117,290

About $294,399 per household · based on 340 million US residents

As of Aug 10, 2026

What it means for shoppers: Every household's share of the debt is serviced through taxes and higher borrowing costs. It's a reminder that the real win on a purchase is the price you avoid financing, not just the discount.

Average interest rate on US debt

3.45%

+0.10 pts vs a year ago

Weighted average rate Treasury pays across all interest-bearing securities.

As of Jul 31, 2026

What it means for shoppers: This is the cleanest read on the government's cost of money. When it falls, consumer borrowing and retailer inventory financing get cheaper — historically a setup for more aggressive promotions.

Interest paid on the debt (fiscal YTD)

$1.17 trillion

Total interest expense so far this federal fiscal year (starts Oct 1).

As of Jul 31, 2026

What it means for shoppers: Rising interest costs crowd out other spending and keep rates elevated longer. For shoppers that means fewer 0% financing offers on big-ticket items — lean on coupon stacking instead.

Federal deficit (fiscal YTD)

$1.37 trillion

-23.0% vs the same point last year

June: $120.3 billion deficit for the month alone.

As of Jun 30, 2026

What it means for shoppers: Bigger deficits mean more Treasury borrowing, which competes with consumers for credit and keeps card and auto-loan rates high. Watch for retailers leaning on coupons instead of financing offers.

Federal spending vs revenue (fiscal YTD)

$5.52 trillion out

$4.15 trillion collected in taxes and fees · the government is spending about $1.33 for every $1 it takes in.

As of Jun 30, 2026

What it means for shoppers: Federal outlays land in household budgets as benefits, refunds and payrolls. When spending growth slows, discretionary retail cools first — and clearance racks fill up faster.

Treasury's cash balance

$966.9 billion

Treasury General Account — the federal government's checking account.

As of Aug 10, 2026

What it means for shoppers: A shrinking balance often precedes heavy Treasury borrowing, which drains liquidity from markets. It's an early warning that credit conditions — and retail promotions — may tighten.

Business applications (BA)

478,274

+11.4% vs a year ago

New business applications filed with the IRS nationwide this month.

What it means for shoppers: A rush of new businesses means more small sellers competing for your dollar — expect more launch discounts, first-order coupons and local promotions.

High-propensity applications (HBA)

131,083

+1.9% vs a year ago

Applications most likely to become real employer businesses.

What it means for shoppers: High-propensity filings are the ones that turn into actual storefronts and services. When they climb, expect real new options — and grand-opening deals — within a year.

Applications planning wages (WBA)

30,551

-14.8% vs a year ago

Applications that indicate the business plans to hire and pay wages.

What it means for shoppers: Planned-wage filings track hiring intent. More hiring means more household income locally, which usually firms up prices but improves service and selection.

Corporate applications (CBA)

36,829

-4.8% vs a year ago

Applications filed by corporations rather than sole proprietors.

What it means for shoppers: Corporate filings skew toward larger, better-capitalized entrants — the kind that run aggressive promotional campaigns to buy market share.

Projected business formations (8 quarters)

34,262

+10.1% vs a year ago

Applications projected to become employer businesses within eight quarters.

What it means for shoppers: This is the forward-looking read on real competition. Rising projections point to more choices — and more discounting — over the next two years.

Average formation duration

2.4 weeks

+0.0 weeks vs a year ago

Average time from application to becoming an employer business (within eight quarters).

What it means for shoppers: Shorter formation times mean new competitors reach the market faster, so the discounting that comes with new entrants shows up sooner.

Fastest-growing states

Biggest year-over-year jump in new business applications.

• Alaska1,241+69.1%
• Maine1,340+39.3%
• Vermont673+36.0%
• West Virginia1,569+32.0%
• Mississippi5,116+31.3%
• Colorado14,022+29.9%
• Idaho3,118+29.6%
• Kentucky6,217+28.9%
• Minnesota7,560+27.7%
• California50,293+25.9%

Most new businesses

States filing the most applications, with high-propensity filings.

• Florida55,60215,811 HBA
• California50,29315,564 HBA
• Texas43,52712,003 HBA
• New York23,7928,507 HBA
• Georgia20,2295,102 HBA
• North Carolina15,5784,315 HBA
• Illinois14,5434,427 HBA
• New Jersey14,3683,706 HBA
• Colorado14,0223,131 HBA
• Michigan13,2233,195 HBA

Slowest-growing states

Weakest year-over-year change in new business applications.

• Hawaii1,251-10.8%
• South Carolina7,567-7.4%
• District of Columbia1,171-2.3%
• North Carolina15,578-2.3%
• Delaware4,657-2.3%
• Nebraska1,797-2.1%
• Wisconsin5,543+0.7%
• Tennessee8,626+1.9%
• Maryland8,009+2.6%
• Pennsylvania12,648+4.5%

Least new businesses

States filing the fewest applications, with high-propensity filings.

• Vermont673204 HBA
• North Dakota792233 HBA
• Rhode Island1,001273 HBA
• South Dakota1,170288 HBA
• District of Columbia1,171330 HBA
• Alaska1,241207 HBA
• Hawaii1,251330 HBA
• Maine1,340422 HBA
• West Virginia1,569410 HBA
• New Hampshire1,588434 HBA

Top 10 highest tax states

Most state tax collected per resident.

• #1District of Columbia$16,036/person
  total $11.3Bincome $3.6Bsales $2.1Bcorporate $1.2Bproperty $3.0B
• #2Vermont$8,028/person
  total $5.2Bincome $1.4Bsales $618.1Mcorporate $286.0Mproperty $1.5B
• #3Hawaii$7,632/person
  total $11.0Bincome $3.3Bsales $5.0Bcorporate $410.6M
• #4New Mexico$7,013/person
  total $14.9Bincome $2.5Bsales $4.5Bcorporate $782.0Mproperty $125.9M
• #5California$6,975/person
  total $275.0Bincome $128.7Bsales $53.5Bcorporate $39.4Bproperty $3.7B
• #6North Dakota$6,926/person
  total $5.5Bincome $425.4Msales $1.4Bcorporate $336.2Mproperty $6.0M
• #7Connecticut$6,736/person
  total $24.8Bincome $11.2Bsales $6.3Bcorporate $3.5B
• #8New York$6,608/person
  total $131.3Bincome $61.2Bsales $20.4Bcorporate $26.8B
• #9Delaware$6,607/person
  total $6.9Bincome $2.8Bcorporate $577.3M
• #10Massachusetts$6,470/person
  total $46.2Bincome $24.5Bsales $9.7Bcorporate $6.4Bproperty $17.8M

Top 10 lowest tax states

Least state tax collected per resident.

• #51Alaska$2,279/person
  total $1.7Bcorporate $365.4Mproperty $133.8M
• #50New Hampshire$2,393/person
  total $3.4Bincome $91.2Mcorporate $1.1Bproperty $413.6M
• #49Florida$2,719/person
  total $63.6Bsales $40.0Bcorporate $5.8B
• #48Texas$2,874/person
  total $89.9Bsales $56.5B
• #47Missouri$2,883/person
  total $18.0Bincome $7.8Bsales $5.4Bcorporate $1.6Bproperty $47.5M
• #46South Dakota$2,906/person
  total $2.7Bsales $1.7Bcorporate $59.9M
• #45Georgia$3,073/person
  total $34.4Bincome $16.2Bsales $9.3Bcorporate $3.3Bproperty $882.2M
• #44Oklahoma$3,185/person
  total $13.0Bincome $4.9Bsales $3.5Bcorporate $639.8M
• #43Ohio$3,269/person
  total $38.8Bincome $11.0Bsales $16.5Bcorporate $176,000
• #42Colorado$3,401/person
  total $20.3Bincome $8.8Bsales $4.7Bcorporate $2.4B